On 15 January, the Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) published an update of the association's own gas scenarios. In addition to an outlook for the summer period of 2025, it takes into account the existing gas supply situation following the complete outage of the Ukrainian gas transmission system.
After Germany started the winter of 2024/25 with a gas storage level of 98 % on 1 November 2024 and gas has been continuously withdrawn from storage since 4 November 2024, the level (at average temperatures) fell to 80 % at the turn of the year.
According to INES, a gas shortage is not to be expected „in the remaining winter of 2024/25“ despite the complete absence of gas transports through Ukraine. „The filling level target of 30 % by 1 February 2025“ will be met „in all scenarios“.
„In medium to warm temperatures, the gas storage levels fall moderately to up to 48 %. If extremely cold temperatures occur in the remainder of winter 2025, the gas storage facilities will be emptied extensively by mid-March 2025. The fill level could then be 24 % at the end of the winter“, INES adds.
However, it is technically possible to completely refill the gas storage facilities despite the aforementioned transit failure. „Despite the average temperature level and the still high storage levels, the summer-winter spread” remains constant „in the clearly negative range“. However, this neither incentivises the refilling of gas storage facilities nor the booking of storage facilities.
„A significant depletion of gas storage facilities could lead to a considerable need for action to refill them in accordance with the filling level requirements of the Gas Storage Act“, said INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann on the January update. „INES recommends considering filling storage facilities earlier and on a pro rata basis by tendering filling instruments. This could minimise the potentially high costs that may arise without fully assuming the cost risk of unnecessary measures.“