As part of the „HYPAT - H2 Potential Atlas“ research project, the future significance of green hydrogen for the international energy and climate strategy was analysed. Under the coordination of Fraunhofer ISI, nine research institutes worked on comprehensive analyses of the production, infrastructure and global demand for this sustainable energy source. The aim of the project was to identify potential partner countries and develop strategies for imports and international cooperation. The recently presented final report provides important insights for the energy transition in Germany and worldwide.
Green hydrogen: potential, costs and market conditions
By 2050, green hydrogen could cover between 4 % and 11 % of global final energy demand. In Germany, the forecast share is as high as 20 %. Due to limited renewable resources in Germany, a significant proportion of hydrogen will have to be imported. However, the market ramp-up is proving difficult: geopolitical uncertainties, high energy prices and unclear purchase guarantees are slowing down investment.
The cost forecasts assume hydrogen prices of between 3.5 and 6.5 euros/kg in 2030 and a reduction to 2.5 to 4.5 euros/kg by 2050. Within the EU, Germany will have the highest hydrogen prices, which will pose challenges for energy-intensive industries such as steel and chemicals. High-production countries such as the USA or Canada have a competitive advantage here due to favourable conditions.
International partnerships and key challenges
In order to secure long-term demand, Germany must build sustainable relationships with countries such as Morocco, Chile and Canada, which have great potential for renewable energies. Social, regulatory and geopolitical framework conditions play a decisive role here.
A well-developed European pipeline network could further reduce dependence on imports.
Exporting countries must ensure that their own climate targets are not jeopardised by hydrogen exports. Potential conflicts on the ground must be avoided through transparent, socially just and inclusive projects.
Outlook: strategic reorientation for a sustainable supply
Germany faces the major challenge of establishing a reliable hydrogen infrastructure and avoiding mistakes from previous one-sided dependencies. The key lies in international cooperation that takes equal account of economic, social and political aspects. This is the only way to drive forward the decarbonisation of industry and secure competitiveness in the long term.
