A recent study by the Fraunhofer Excellence Cluster Integrated Energy Systems (CINES) shows that Europe must build extensive hydrogen infrastructure - even at low demand. European domestic production could cover up to 90 percent of the demand. The research forecasts a demand between 700 and 2,800 terawatt hours.
However, the ramp-up of hydrogen faces major uncertainties regarding future demand and the corresponding infrastructure - a dilemma that hinders strategic decisions and concrete planning. Researchers at Fraunhofer CINES have analyzed the overall European energy system in 2030 and 2050 using scenarios. They show that even at low hydrogen demand, an expansion of the hydrogen infrastructure is necessary.
Uncertainties About Hydrogen Demand Hindered Investments
Fraunhofer CINES has examined five development scenarios for the European hydrogen infrastructure. Assuming that the respective cost-optimal energy system is implemented. The study analyzes the demand for hydrogen and its derivatives for the years 2030 and 2050. The minimum demand in Europe in 2050 is 700 terawatt hours. This demand arises from industrial process heat, power plants, district heating and intra-European air traffic. In the maximum scenario, consumption is around 2,800 terawatt hours. The main reason for the wide range is the great uncertainty regarding future hydrogen consumption as a feedstock for the chemical industry. The chemical and steel industry in northwestern Europe, especially in North Rhine-Westphalia, the Netherlands and Flanders, form a geographical focus.
From this, the researchers calculated the scale of hydrogen infrastructure that will be required in 2030 and 2050 to meet the respective demand. This shows that even at the lowest expected hydrogen demand, all the essential elements of this infrastructure, such as electrolyzers, transport corridors and storage, are needed on a large scale.
"A hindrance for many hydrogen strategies and investments in the corresponding technologies has been the great uncertainty about whether and to what extent the infrastructure is even needed," explained Dr. Tobias Fleiter, study director at the Fraunhofer Excellence Cluster, on the background of the study.
Europe Can Produce Most of the Hydrogen Itself
According to the investigations, domestic production in Europe should largely cover the hydrogen demand. Imports would make up a maximum of 10 percent of total demand.
The required electrolyzer capacity is developing as follows, according to the Fraunhofer CINES: In 2030, the capacity is expected to be between 54 and 107 gigawatts. By 2050, it will rise to 300 to 1,067 gigawatts. The electrolyzers will initially most likely be located at wind power sites on the coasts of the British Isles, Norway, northwestern Germany and France. Later, sites in southern Europe will also be added.
On-site electrolysis at solar and wind sites proves to be more cost-effective compared to consumption-proximate production. This result makes it clear how efficiently large amounts of energy can be transported across the entire continent in the form of hydrogen, even compared to transport via the power grid, according to Dr. Fleiter. At the same time, green hydrogen produced in Europe remains competitive compared to imports, says the study director. The reason for this is that the transport costs from North Africa and the Middle East offset the lower production costs there.
Storage Capacity of up to 300 Terawatt Hours Needed
Accordingly, the infrastructure for intra-European hydrogen transport is correspondingly important. According to the Fraunhofer CINES, the main transport corridors lead from the British Isles and Norway to the northwest of continental Europe, while France will become a hub for hydrogen from Spain and Portugal.
For the seasonal balancing of hydrogen generation and consumption, hydrogen storage with a Europe-wide capacity of 215 to 300 terawatt hours will be needed by 2050. If all existing natural gas storage facilities were converted for hydrogen storage, they could hold about 225 terawatt hours of hydrogen.
The methodology applied by the CINES researchers models the future European energy system in temporal and spatial resolution. The models take into account numerous influencing factors such as technologies, prices, regulatory framework conditions and weather data. This gives the Excellence Cluster a tool to examine further uncertainty factors for the future hydrogen system in more detail. According to Fleiter, these include various expansion paths of renewable energies, so-called blue hydrogen, biomass or also CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage).
The study was conducted as part of the BMBF hydrogen flagship project TransHyDE.
